‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the vital shipping lane, stocks of kitchen fuel are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply isn't available," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are turning to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, media reports say up to a fifth of eateries are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their gas stocks have depleted with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers observe a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the authorities maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and officials say cylinders are being prioritized to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being prioritised for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of panic buying.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.