Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.